Most of the commentary lately has been surrounding the falling property prices in Sydney, in fact, most media outlets are using this as click bait soliciting negative opinions from anybody who will care to comment on it. Usually these comments include bleak predictions for the future and conservative recovery times for the housing market.
However, peppered amongst these baited articles lately have been some positive stories including a weekend with clearance rates close to 70% a couple of weeks ago, houses selling above reserve prices and easing access to finance.
Further, there have been some articles lately calling the ‘bottom of the market’ and the ‘end of the falling market’ which is fantastic news for buyers and sellers as sentiment will shift from caution to confidence.
I am not going to comment too much on the Federal Election, in spite of the potential changes to negative gearing, which may never get through anyway, I think Elections effect sentiment in the lead up with fear of uncertainty but have little realised impact in actuality.
The ASX 30 day Interbank cash rate futures are currently trading with a 47% chance of a rate cut which is up from just 16% roughly 10 days ago. If I was to decipher this, I would say that the rate cut is happening it is just a matter of when, possibly within the next month.
A rate cut would certainly bring confidence to the market.
Over the last 5 years we have seen that Winter trading has been as strong as Summer periods across the Upper North Shore and parts of Sydney, in fact in some suburbs, winter was stronger than spring. There is no certain evidence of why this is the case but it could be that buyers feel they are getting a jump on competition outside of what used to be the typical buying periods.
There is up to 50% less stock on the market in most suburbs across the Upper North Shore and inspection numbers are 3 and 4 times that of this time last year in almost all campaigns.
With the positive news peeking through the clouds across the market I feel that we are on the brink of a change across the market.
Thomas Merriman.
Thomas Merriman 