Well, the prediction data from the big forecasters was wrong, the Sydney market dropped more than they had expected, at 1.2% this quarter rather than 0.9%. However, they are sure to be correct that the yearly prediction is a fall of between 5% and 6%.
The good news is, we will know if a few months.
When I look at the last 20 years of sales in all suburbs across the Upper North Shore, each year has recorded more than double the transactions as the current year projections.
For instance, in West Pymble in 2017 there were roughly 80 sales and all of the previous 20 years, never less than 70, so far this year, just 27 with roughly 2 good selling months to go.
It is the same in Turramurra in 2017 recorded 170 sales and never less than 140 annual sales over 20 years, so far this year, just 49.
It seems to me that it is hard to analyse this data and make predictions correctly when we are not comparing apples with apples.
That being said, we are definitely staring down a barrel and looking for answers, I just think we should look at 12 month rolling market models rather than quarterly predictions or snap shots.
Last weeks Auctions were stable at around 53% with 556 Auctions scheduled 318 taking place and 205 reportedly sold under the hammer.
Thomas Merriman 